Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 5626 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 5626 CLT 09:40 → BOS 12:06 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2595 CLT 18:34 → BOS 20:59 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5626 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 09:40	BOS 12:06	6%	2%	0.5%	89%
AA 1151 American	CLT 08:35	BOS 10:56	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2263 American	CLT 10:17	BOS 12:34	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1140 American	CLT 12:16	BOS 14:33	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 5630 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 15:26	BOS 17:47	10%	3%	0.5%	73%
DL 5837 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 17:34	BOS 20:15	11%	3%	0.6%	64%
AA 1843 American Flight history →	CLT 20:11	BOS 22:46	13%	4%	0.6%	71%
AA 901 American Flight history →	CLT 14:26	BOS 16:40	14%	3%	0.6%	82%
AA 1155 American	CLT 16:59	BOS 19:21	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2595 American Flight history →	CLT 18:34	BOS 20:59	16%	5%	0.6%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON