Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 4016 at 08:35 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 4016 CLT 08:35 → BWI 10:08 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3121 CLT 17:40 → BWI 19:11 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4016 Southwest	CLT 08:35	BWI 10:08	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 1216 American	CLT 08:14	BWI 09:55	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2733 American Flight history →	CLT 12:25	BWI 14:04	10%	3%	0.6%	87%
WN 3535 Southwest	CLT 13:38	BWI 15:06	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 1318 American Flight history →	CLT 19:50	BWI 21:32	15%	4%	0.6%	74%
AA 2855 American Flight history →	CLT 18:26	BWI 19:55	18%	4%	0.6%	76%
AA 3121 American	CLT 17:40	BWI 19:11	20%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON