Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:50 am at Charlotte)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 3127 American	CLT 19:48	CID 21:21	24%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 1887 American Flight history →	CLT 17:40	CID 18:56	25%	5%	1.0%	72%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cedar Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cedar Rapids is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CLT 18:26 → ORD 19:51AA 2488	3h 24m Chicago	ORD 23:15 → CID 00:16 +1AA 4231 · flown by Envoy	6h 50m	96%	88%
American Details →	CLT 10:59 → DFW 12:48AA 2747	3h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:44 → CID 18:50AA 3798 · flown by Envoy	8h 51m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	CLT 18:58 → MSP 20:47DL 2820	1h 29m Minneapolis	MSP 22:16 → CID 23:28DL 5290 · flown by Endeavor	5h 30m	92%	86%
American Details →	CLT 18:01 → DFW 19:52AA 2815	1h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:15 → CID 23:33AA 4235 · flown by Envoy	6h 32m	84%	73%
American Details →	CLT 16:16 → ORD 17:39AA 536	51m Chicago	ORD 18:30 → CID 19:53AA 3458 · flown by Envoy	4h 37m	77%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON