Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 848 CLT 10:55 → CLE 12:35 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3146 CLT 20:44 → CLE 22:21 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 848 American	CLT 10:55	CLE 12:35	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2260 American Flight history →	CLT 22:50	CLE 00:29	13%	3%	0.6%	69%
OH 5617 PSA	CLT 12:32	CLE 14:13	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1244 American	CLT 14:22	CLE 15:55	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3146 American Flight history →	CLT 20:44	CLE 22:21	19%	4%	0.6%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON