Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2236 CLT 13:12 → CMH 14:40 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3330 CLT 18:05 → CMH 19:35 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2236 American	CLT 13:12	CMH 14:40	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2180 American	CLT 10:35	CMH 11:58	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 3226 American Flight history →	CLT 22:29	CMH 23:56	14%	3%	0.6%	68%
AA 1120 American	CLT 16:35	CMH 17:56	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3330 American Flight history →	CLT 18:05	CMH 19:35	15%	3%	0.6%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON