Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, MQ 3618 at 21:07, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


MQ 3618 Envoy	CLT 21:07	COU 22:08	8%	2%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbia is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180	2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:43 → COU 11:29AA 3416 · flown by Envoy	6h 44m	99%	91%
American Details →	CLT 16:16 → ORD 17:39AA 536	1h 42m Chicago	ORD 19:21 → COU 20:48AA 3696 · flown by Envoy	5h 32m	95%	85%
United Details →	CLT 06:39 → ORD 07:44UA 1304	56m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → COU 10:13UA 4392 · flown by GoJet	4h 34m	92%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON