Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 430 at 08:56 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 430 CLT 08:56 → CVG 10:25 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time Riskiest AA 2021 CLT 18:34 → CVG 20:05 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 430 American Flight history →	CLT 08:56	CVG 10:25	9%	2%	0.6%	61%
AA 1533 American	CLT 11:34	CVG 12:54	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 5293 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:51	CVG 18:16	15%	3%	0.7%	75%
AA 626 American Flight history →	CLT 22:30	CVG 23:58	16%	3%	0.6%	67%
AA 2021 American Flight history →	CLT 18:34	CVG 20:05	19%	4%	0.6%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON