Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 8–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 9952 CLT 07:35 → DAY 09:10 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5174 CLT 18:02 → DAY 19:30 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 9952 PSA	CLT 07:35	DAY 09:10	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
OH 5161 PSA	CLT 10:31	DAY 12:03	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 5321 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:03	DAY 17:28	16%	5%	0.7%	79%
AA 5435 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 19:42	DAY 21:23	16%	6%	0.7%	70%
AA 5174 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 18:02	DAY 19:30	18%	7%	0.7%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON