Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1581 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 1581 CLT 07:50 → DCA 09:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2002 CLT 16:37 → DCA 18:07 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1581 American	CLT 07:50	DCA 09:35	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 3043 American	CLT 09:10	DCA 10:42	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
OH 5539 PSA	CLT 11:22	DCA 12:57	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1269 American Flight history →	CLT 22:27	DCA 23:53	14%	4%	0.7%	64%
AA 2839 American Flight history →	CLT 14:34	DCA 16:13	15%	5%	0.6%	66%
AA 2432 American	CLT 20:41	DCA 22:12	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 527 American Flight history →	CLT 20:49	DCA 22:20	18%	5%	0.7%	57%
AA 2002 American	CLT 16:37	DCA 18:07	19%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON