Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1963 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 1963 CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 3156 CLT 17:29 → DEN 18:57 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1963 United Flight history →	CLT 08:40	DEN 10:27	7%	2%	0.5%	92%
AA 1328 American Flight history →	CLT 08:32	DEN 10:09	9%	2%	0.6%	90%
UA 792 United	CLT 16:14	DEN 17:44	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 696 American	CLT 13:09	DEN 14:39	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3156 American Flight history →	CLT 17:29	DEN 18:57	18%	3%	0.6%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON