Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 3180 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–16%.

Safest bet that day AA 3180 CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2815 CLT 18:23 → DFW 20:01 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3180 American Flight history →	CLT 05:45	DFW 07:35	5%	2%	0.6%	91%
AA 1005 American Flight history →	CLT 07:34	DFW 09:28	8%	2%	0.6%	85%
AA 575 American	CLT 09:11	DFW 10:50	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2747 American Flight history →	CLT 11:11	DFW 12:49	9%	3%	0.6%	75%
AA 1690 American	CLT 13:21	DFW 15:14	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1256 American	CLT 22:08	DFW 23:49	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1709 American Flight history →	CLT 15:04	DFW 16:58	11%	3%	0.6%	80%
F9 3165 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 12:01	DFW 13:55	11%	4%	0.8%	73%
AA 3209 American	CLT 16:59	DFW 18:49	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1698 American Flight history →	CLT 19:52	DFW 21:44	14%	4%	0.6%	50%
AA 2815 American Flight history →	CLT 18:23	DFW 20:01	16%	4%	0.6%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON