Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 798 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 798 CLT 07:00 → EWR 08:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 997 CLT 18:31 → EWR 20:29 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 798 United Flight history →	CLT 07:00	EWR 08:59	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
YX 3649 Republic	CLT 11:08	EWR 13:25	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
YX 3427 Republic	CLT 09:45	EWR 11:46	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1697 American Flight history →	CLT 10:47	EWR 12:43	11%	2%	0.7%	87%
YX 3428 Republic	CLT 16:00	EWR 18:22	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
YX 3627 Republic	CLT 13:12	EWR 15:15	12%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 3468 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 17:52	EWR 20:00	17%	3%	0.7%	68%
AA 1330 American Flight history →	CLT 16:22	EWR 18:20	21%	4%	0.7%	66%
AA 997 American	CLT 18:31	EWR 20:29	23%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON