Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2585 at 10:46 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 2585 CLT 10:46 → FLL 13:10 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1148 CLT 15:10 → FLL 17:16 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2585 American	CLT 10:46	FLL 13:10	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1419 American Flight history →	CLT 08:25	FLL 10:32	9%	2%	0.6%	92%
B6 848 JetBlue Flight history →	CLT 06:50	FLL 08:56	9%	2%	0.7%	85%
AA 321 American Flight history →	CLT 20:42	FLL 22:42	20%	6%	0.9%	68%
AA 2945 American Flight history →	CLT 20:06	FLL 22:14	20%	6%	0.9%	75%
AA 2397 American Flight history →	CLT 15:25	FLL 17:37	23%	5%	0.8%	62%
B6 8428 JetBlue	CLT 16:00	FLL 18:08	26%	8%	1.2%	no record
B6 1148 JetBlue Flight history →	CLT 15:10	FLL 17:16	27%	8%	1.0%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON