Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 10–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4147 CLT 20:22 → GSO 21:24 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 3133 CLT 15:57 → GSO 16:47 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4147 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 20:22	GSO 21:24	10%	2%	0.6%	86%
MQ 3684 Envoy	CLT 17:42	GSO 18:29	14%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 2802 American Flight history →	CLT 21:58	GSO 22:50	19%	5%	0.7%	70%
AA 3133 American	CLT 15:57	GSO 16:47	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 5793 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 07:25	GSO 08:30	8%	3%	0.0%	92%
AA 5796 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:12	GSO 12:17	11%	4%	0.0%	89%
AA 5789 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 13:05	GSO 14:10	21%	8%	0.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON