Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 13–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 5431 CLT 08:34 → HPN 10:45 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 5016 CLT 18:20 → HPN 20:26 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5431 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 08:34	HPN 10:45	13%	3%	0.4%	83%
AA 5180 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 11:06	HPN 13:13	15%	3%	0.4%	80%
AA 5606 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 14:49	HPN 16:56	16%	4%	0.6%	72%
AA 5016 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 18:20	HPN 20:26	17%	5%	0.6%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON