Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 434 at 10:22 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 434 CLT 10:22 → IAD 12:00 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1954 CLT 17:46 → IAD 19:01 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 434 United	CLT 10:22	IAD 12:00	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
OH 5490 PSA	CLT 08:34	IAD 10:08	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
OH 5154 PSA	CLT 10:28	IAD 11:50	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 5447 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:06	IAD 17:44	13%	4%	0.6%	75%
AA 2608 American	CLT 22:26	IAD 23:44	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1954 American	CLT 17:46	IAD 19:01	22%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 6279 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 06:00	IAD 07:29	8%	5%	2.6%	92%
UA 4012 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 10:27	IAD 11:55	15%	5%	0.0%	85%
UA 3998 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 19:44	IAD 21:20	18%	8%	5.5%	82%
UA 6203 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:53	IAD 16:30	23%	10%	1.4%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON