Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 14–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2445 CLT 08:27 → IAH 10:13 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2935 CLT 17:44 → IAH 19:21 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2445 American Flight history →	CLT 08:27	IAH 10:13	14%	3%	0.6%	91%
AA 398 American	CLT 12:40	IAH 14:18	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1840 American Flight history →	CLT 20:45	IAH 22:27	18%	5%	0.6%	71%
AA 2935 American Flight history →	CLT 17:44	IAH 19:21	20%	4%	0.6%	62%
UA 6236 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:48	IAH 13:34	10%	4%	0.9%	90%
UA 4020 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 17:00	IAH 18:58	20%	13%	0.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON