Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2413 CLT 13:38 → ILM 14:36 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2826 CLT 20:29 → ILM 21:35 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2413 American	CLT 13:38	ILM 14:36	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2831 American	CLT 21:59	ILM 23:10	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2105 American Flight history →	CLT 17:11	ILM 18:21	14%	5%	0.6%	74%
AA 2826 American Flight history →	CLT 20:29	ILM 21:35	16%	6%	0.6%	71%
AA 5822 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:15	ILM 12:33	12%	7%	1.6%	88%
AA 6116 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 16:24	ILM 17:41	29%	13%	1.4%	71%
AA 5823 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:36	ILM 15:50	32%	10%	0.0%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON