Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1589 CLT 12:26 → IND 14:11 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 3087 CLT 21:07 → IND 22:47 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1589 American Flight history →	CLT 12:26	IND 14:11	9%	3%	0.6%	83%
AA 1410 American	CLT 08:17	IND 09:56	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1399 American	CLT 16:25	IND 18:00	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1033 American Flight history →	CLT 22:00	IND 23:39	15%	4%	0.6%	75%
AA 3087 American Flight history →	CLT 21:07	IND 22:47	18%	5%	0.6%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON