Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 9–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2470 CLT 10:37 → LAS 12:14 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 750 CLT 14:25 → LAS 16:03 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2470 American Flight history →	CLT 10:37	LAS 12:14	9%	2%	0.6%	87%
AA 2981 American Flight history →	CLT 08:36	LAS 10:21	11%	2%	0.6%	92%
AA 596 American Flight history →	CLT 18:30	LAS 20:17	14%	4%	0.6%	69%
AA 1862 American	CLT 20:47	LAS 22:25	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 750 American Flight history →	CLT 14:25	LAS 16:03	14%	3%	0.6%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180	1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:39 → LAS 09:40AA 1550	6h 55m	96%	86%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	55m Denver	DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526	6h 44m	93%	84%
Delta Details →	CLT 14:22 → ATL 15:37DL 2157	1h 03m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → LAS 17:52DL 711	6h 30m	93%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON