Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2005 at 11:59 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 2005 CLT 11:59 → LAX 13:50 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2055 CLT 19:14 → LAX 21:20 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2005 American	CLT 11:59	LAX 13:50	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1995 American Flight history →	CLT 08:57	LAX 10:56	8%	2%	0.6%	90%
AA 352 American Flight history →	CLT 13:21	LAX 15:18	10%	2%	0.6%	81%
AA 1502 American Flight history →	CLT 14:33	LAX 16:30	13%	3%	0.6%	72%
AA 1499 American Flight history →	CLT 16:50	LAX 18:55	14%	3%	0.7%	63%
AA 2055 American Flight history →	CLT 19:14	LAX 21:20	18%	3%	0.7%	67%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501	6h 54m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	6h 58m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	CLT 13:17 → DTW 15:00DL 2684	50m Detroit	DTW 15:50 → LAX 17:33DL 883	7h 16m	91%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON