Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: YX 5766 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–30%.

Safest bet that day YX 5766 CLT 06:59 → LGA 09:08 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3134 CLT 17:33 → LGA 19:34 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5766 Republic	CLT 06:59	LGA 09:08	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 5719 Republic	CLT 12:24	LGA 14:32	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2036 American Flight history →	CLT 07:15	LGA 09:07	10%	2%	0.7%	82%
AA 1150 American Flight history →	CLT 09:20	LGA 11:15	12%	3%	0.7%	77%
AA 2268 American	CLT 11:34	LGA 13:28	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2927 American	CLT 13:11	LGA 15:05	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2031 American Flight history →	CLT 21:55	LGA 23:34	22%	5%	0.7%	82%
AA 1942 American Flight history →	CLT 15:17	LGA 17:15	24%	6%	0.7%	65%
AA 1060 American Flight history →	CLT 17:57	LGA 20:00	28%	8%	0.7%	62%
F9 3134 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 17:33	LGA 19:34	30%	11%	0.8%	56%
DL 5068 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 09:36	LGA 11:32	17%	9%	6.5%	83%
DL 5051 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:50	LGA 13:50	23%	7%	6.7%	77%
DL 5046 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:37	LGA 16:40	31%	17%	13.6%	69%
DL 5047 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 20:12	LGA 22:21	33%	18%	10.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON