Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2946 CLT 08:42 → MCI 10:16 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2965 CLT 17:50 → MCI 19:21 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2946 American	CLT 08:42	MCI 10:16	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 3233 American	CLT 12:27	MCI 13:48	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1732 American Flight history →	CLT 21:34	MCI 22:58	13%	4%	0.6%	68%
AA 2965 American	CLT 17:50	MCI 19:21	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON