Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 21%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2170 at 08:32, 8%.

Safest bet that day AA 2170 CLT 08:32 → MCO 10:23 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 1682 CLT 16:44 → MCO 18:24 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Weather 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2170 American Flight history →	CLT 08:32	MCO 10:23	8%	2%	1.2%	78%
AA 1576 American	CLT 10:44	MCO 12:35	12%	3%	1.3%	no record
F9 1759 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 09:30	MCO 11:18	14%	3%	1.6%	69%
AA 2117 American Flight history →	CLT 12:18	MCO 13:59	14%	3%	1.2%	81%
AA 1611 American	CLT 14:13	MCO 15:50	19%	5%	2.1%	no record
AA 1879 American Flight history →	CLT 22:29	MCO 00:17	22%	9%	2.1%	64%
F9 4093 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 21:37	MCO 23:26	22%	9%	5.3%	53%
AA 3200 American Flight history →	CLT 20:21	MCO 22:06	26%	11%	2.1%	61%
AA 1783 American Flight history →	CLT 19:05	MCO 21:00	30%	10%	2.7%	46%
AA 612 American Flight history →	CLT 18:05	MCO 20:01	30%	11%	3.2%	54%
AA 1682 American Flight history →	CLT 16:44	MCO 18:24	34%	9%	2.7%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON