Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2185 CLT 08:35 → MDT 10:18 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest PT 6120 CLT 16:15 → MDT 17:49 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2185 American	CLT 08:35	MDT 10:18	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 2384 American	CLT 08:46	MDT 10:28	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 6073 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	CLT 18:04	MDT 19:41	13%	4%	0.8%	85%
PT 5931 Piedmont	CLT 10:52	MDT 12:28	13%	2%	0.8%	no record
PT 5948 Piedmont	CLT 12:25	MDT 14:03	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
OH 5225 PSA	CLT 21:47	MDT 23:23	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
PT 5841 Piedmont	CLT 14:18	MDT 15:49	16%	3%	0.8%	no record
PT 6120 Piedmont	CLT 16:15	MDT 17:49	16%	3%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON