Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 9–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1790 CLT 10:15 → MEM 10:55 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 1372 CLT 22:07 → MEM 22:49 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1790 American Flight history →	CLT 10:15	MEM 10:55	9%	2%	0.6%	96%
AA 2852 American	CLT 14:12	MEM 14:54	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1641 American Flight history →	CLT 21:31	MEM 22:25	15%	4%	0.6%	72%
OH 5398 PSA	CLT 16:26	MEM 17:24	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1372 American Flight history →	CLT 22:07	MEM 22:49	17%	4%	0.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON