Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5661 CLT 08:27 → MHT 10:43 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 5033 CLT 20:33 → MHT 22:51 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5661 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 08:27	MHT 10:43	11%	3%	0.7%	95%
OH 5591 PSA	CLT 08:45	MHT 11:00	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
OH 5397 PSA	CLT 13:59	MHT 16:17	18%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 5033 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:33	MHT 22:51	19%	3%	0.8%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON