Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 770 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 770 CLT 07:05 → MIA 09:12 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 3011 CLT 16:31 → MIA 18:32 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 770 American Flight history →	CLT 07:05	MIA 09:12	6%	2%	0.6%	83%
AA 3184 American Flight history →	CLT 09:10	MIA 11:22	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
AA 969 American Flight history →	CLT 11:02	MIA 13:11	7%	2%	0.6%	88%
AA 1198 American	CLT 13:34	MIA 15:41	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 3068 American Flight history →	CLT 21:47	MIA 23:50	16%	6%	0.8%	66%
F9 3038 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 21:55	MIA 00:06	20%	10%	2.7%	82%
AA 565 American	CLT 19:34	MIA 21:42	22%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 400 American Flight history →	CLT 19:31	MIA 21:25	26%	9%	1.2%	67%
AA 3011 American	CLT 16:31	MIA 18:32	28%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON