Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2030 CLT 11:26 → MSY 12:23 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 608 CLT 20:05 → MSY 21:07 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2030 American	CLT 11:26	MSY 12:23	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2615 American Flight history →	CLT 16:05	MSY 17:03	18%	5%	0.7%	79%
AA 608 American Flight history →	CLT 20:05	MSY 21:07	19%	6%	0.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON