Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: OH 5081 at 22:07 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–18%.

Safest bet that day OH 5081 CLT 22:07 → MYR 23:14 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1417 CLT 17:48 → MYR 18:52 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5081 PSA	CLT 22:07	MYR 23:14	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
OH 5188 PSA	CLT 12:25	MYR 13:32	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
OH 5290 PSA	CLT 08:43	MYR 09:58	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2431 American Flight history →	CLT 10:17	MYR 11:19	11%	2%	0.6%	100%worse than usual
AA 2943 American Flight history →	CLT 15:57	MYR 17:09	16%	3%	0.6%	73%
AA 1085 American Flight history →	CLT 20:29	MYR 21:41	16%	5%	0.6%	70%
AA 1417 American Flight history →	CLT 17:48	MYR 18:52	18%	4%	0.6%	72%
AA 5878 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 07:30	MYR 08:45	0%	0%	0.0%	100%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON