Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 891 at 11:06 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33%.

Safest bet that day AA 891 CLT 11:06 → OMA 13:01 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2245 CLT 19:24 → OMA 21:04 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 891 American	CLT 11:06	OMA 13:01	19%	4%	0.3%	no record
AA 961 American Flight history →	CLT 20:16	OMA 21:58	33%	4%	0.9%	78%worse than usual
AA 2245 American	CLT 19:24	OMA 21:04	33%	5%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON