Today: YX 3421 at 17:37 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–38%.

Safest bet today YX 3421 CLT 17:37 → ORD 18:55 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2488 CLT 18:26 → ORD 19:51 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 3421 Republic	CLT 17:37	ORD 18:55	22%	3%	0.4%	no record
AA 815 American Flight history →	CLT 21:35	ORD 22:46	24%	4%	0.7%	55%
AA 627 American Flight history →	CLT 22:43	ORD 23:54	24%	5%	0.8%	61%
AA 536 American Flight history →	CLT 16:16	ORD 17:39	28%	6%	0.7%	68%
AA 2488 American Flight history →	CLT 18:26	ORD 19:51	38%	6%	0.7%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON