Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2911 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 2911 CLT 08:15 → ORF 09:37 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 5622 CLT 20:24 → ORF 21:45 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2911 American Flight history →	CLT 08:15	ORF 09:37	9%	3%	0.6%	78%
AA 2072 American Flight history →	CLT 08:23	ORF 09:47	9%	3%	0.6%	82%
AA 1323 American Flight history →	CLT 12:12	ORF 13:34	11%	3%	0.6%	92%
AA 2651 American	CLT 15:19	ORF 16:29	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2674 American Flight history →	CLT 22:25	ORF 23:41	15%	5%	0.7%	70%
AA 2519 American Flight history →	CLT 18:11	ORF 19:36	19%	5%	0.6%	46%
AA 5622 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:24	ORF 21:45	22%	6%	0.7%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON