Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2565 at 09:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 2565 CLT 09:20 → PHL 11:05 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1328 CLT 17:40 → PHL 19:36 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2565 American	CLT 09:20	PHL 11:05	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 3325 American	CLT 08:25	PHL 10:13	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2498 American Flight history →	CLT 11:00	PHL 12:43	8%	3%	0.6%	79%
AA 2573 American Flight history →	CLT 13:02	PHL 14:50	11%	3%	0.6%	76%
AA 1827 American	CLT 21:30	PHL 23:10	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1838 American Flight history →	CLT 14:25	PHL 16:18	14%	3%	0.6%	70%
AA 864 American Flight history →	CLT 16:43	PHL 18:32	14%	4%	0.6%	70%
AA 423 American Flight history →	CLT 17:59	PHL 19:42	16%	4%	0.6%	66%
F9 1328 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 17:40	PHL 19:36	18%	7%	0.8%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON