Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1986 CLT 09:41 → PHX 11:04 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1274 CLT 18:39 → PHX 20:10 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1986 American Flight history →	CLT 09:41	PHX 11:04	9%	2%	0.6%	90%
AA 1678 American Flight history →	CLT 07:41	PHX 09:05	9%	2%	0.6%	89%
AA 588 American Flight history →	CLT 11:37	PHX 12:56	9%	2%	0.6%	87%
AA 3046 American Flight history →	CLT 15:42	PHX 16:56	11%	3%	0.6%	82%
AA 1044 American Flight history →	CLT 13:07	PHX 14:23	12%	3%	0.6%	80%
AA 1711 American Flight history →	CLT 14:35	PHX 15:55	13%	3%	0.6%	81%
AA 1274 American	CLT 18:39	PHX 20:10	15%	4%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	CLT 18:23 → DFW 20:01AA 2815	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:55 → PHX 21:37AA 3232	6h 14m	82%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON