Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2310 CLT 08:05 → PIT 09:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2676 CLT 19:23 → PIT 20:46 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2310 American Flight history →	CLT 08:05	PIT 09:30	8%	2%	0.6%	91%
AA 1736 American	CLT 12:19	PIT 13:43	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1962 American Flight history →	CLT 22:47	PIT 00:16	11%	3%	0.6%	73%
AA 2307 American Flight history →	CLT 19:42	PIT 21:19	15%	4%	0.6%	75%
AA 2676 American Flight history →	CLT 19:23	PIT 20:46	16%	4%	0.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON