Today: MQ 3570 at 14:04 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–28%.

Safest bet today MQ 3570 CLT 14:04 → PNS 14:51 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3131 CLT 23:22 → PNS 23:58 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3570 Envoy	CLT 14:04	PNS 14:51	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2476 American	CLT 10:16	PNS 11:05	15%	3%	1.0%	no record
OH 5038 PSA	CLT 16:28	PNS 17:06	23%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 5429 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 17:40	PNS 18:26	25%	5%	1.1%	69%
AA 3038 American	CLT 21:55	PNS 22:44	27%	7%	1.8%	no record
AA 3131 American Flight history →	CLT 23:22	PNS 23:58	28%	6%	1.8%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON