Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, OH 5211 at 11:05, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OH 5211 PSA	CLT 11:05	RAP 12:31	9%	3%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rapid City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 2 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709	3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:03 → RAP 21:31AA 3567 · flown by Envoy	8h 27m	99%	90%
American Details →	CLT 10:57 → DFW 12:47AA 2747	2h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:50 → RAP 16:26AA 3532 · flown by Envoy	7h 29m	97%	90%
United Details →	CLT 06:42 → ORD 07:56UA 1304	1h 08m Chicago	ORD 09:04 → RAP 10:33UA 2050	5h 51m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	1h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 09:33 → RAP 10:18DL 3971 · flown by SkyWest	5h 58m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	CLT 18:58 → MSP 20:47DL 2820	58m Minneapolis	MSP 21:45 → RAP 22:26DL 3714 · flown by SkyWest	5h 28m	86%	79%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	46m Denver	DEN 11:13 → RAP 12:33UA 1585	5h 53m	87%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON