Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1775 CLT 08:23 → RIC 09:42 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2239 CLT 20:36 → RIC 21:50 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1775 American	CLT 08:23	RIC 09:42	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 5119 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 10:34	RIC 12:02	7%	2%	0.6%	100%
OH 5144 PSA	CLT 13:01	RIC 14:18	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
OH 5505 PSA	CLT 14:13	RIC 15:33	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1757 American	CLT 15:17	RIC 16:25	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 993 American Flight history →	CLT 21:36	RIC 22:50	12%	4%	0.7%	74%
AA 1909 American Flight history →	CLT 17:24	RIC 18:39	13%	5%	0.6%	77%
AA 2239 American	CLT 20:36	RIC 21:50	15%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON