Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: OH 5630 at 10:46 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–27%.

Safest bet that day OH 5630 CLT 10:46 → ROC 12:34 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3155 CLT 20:38 → ROC 22:27 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5630 PSA	CLT 10:46	ROC 12:34	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2742 American	CLT 10:22	ROC 12:16	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2320 American Flight history →	CLT 15:19	ROC 17:17	20%	4%	0.6%	76%
AA 3155 American Flight history →	CLT 20:38	ROC 22:27	27%	6%	0.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON