Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2100 CLT 07:09 → SAN 09:10 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 562 CLT 16:41 → SAN 18:44 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2100 American	CLT 07:09	SAN 09:10	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 466 American Flight history →	CLT 11:15	SAN 13:05	13%	3%	0.6%	80%
AA 562 American Flight history →	CLT 16:41	SAN 18:44	19%	4%	0.6%	79%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → SAN 09:26DL 725	6h 56m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156	49m Atlanta	ATL 10:04 → SAN 11:43DL 843	6h 42m	88%	77%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	48m Denver	DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940	7h 01m	90%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON