Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 9827 CLT 04:03 → SDF 05:36 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2923 CLT 17:44 → SDF 19:22 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 9827 American	CLT 04:03	SDF 05:36	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2816 American	CLT 12:30	SDF 13:57	8%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 5145 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 10:53	SDF 12:21	9%	3%	0.6%	86%
OH 5315 PSA	CLT 15:58	SDF 17:34	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 671 American Flight history →	CLT 23:02	SDF 00:34	14%	5%	0.6%	73%
AA 2923 American	CLT 17:44	SDF 19:22	16%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON