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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2407 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 2407 CLT 08:40 → SEA 11:30 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 751 CLT 17:40 → SEA 20:25 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time
Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 2407 American Flight history → CLT 08:40 SEA 11:30 13% 3% 0.6% 86%
AA 506 American Flight history → CLT 12:35 SEA 15:18 14% 3% 0.6% 81%
AA 751 American Flight history → CLT 17:40 SEA 20:25 25% 4% 0.6% 63%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186 59m Atlanta ATL 07:40 → SEA 09:54DL 444 7h 24m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491 1h 06m Minneapolis MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868 7h 39m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → CLT 18:58 → MSP 20:47DL 2820 1h 21m Minneapolis MSP 22:08 → SEA 23:58DL 505 8h 00m 93% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON