Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2758 CLT 08:26 → SFO 11:01 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2410 CLT 17:41 → SFO 20:00 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2758 American	CLT 08:26	SFO 11:01	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1489 American	CLT 13:10	SFO 15:27	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2410 American Flight history →	CLT 17:41	SFO 20:00	16%	4%	0.7%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	7h 50m	99%	91%
United Details →	CLT 06:39 → ORD 07:44UA 1304	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 08:59 → SFO 11:26UA 342	7h 47m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405	48m Detroit	DTW 08:30 → SFO 10:27DL 361	7h 27m	92%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON