Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4060 CLT 11:25 → SGF 12:47 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 4017 CLT 20:15 → SGF 21:34 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4060 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 11:25	SGF 12:47	9%	2%	0.7%	91%
MQ 4209 Envoy	CLT 11:03	SGF 12:29	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 5466 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:06	SGF 17:16	11%	3%	0.6%	83%
AA 4017 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 20:15	SGF 21:34	16%	3%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON