Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 783 at 11:03, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 783 American Flight history →	CLT 11:03	SJU 14:50	13%	3%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882	8h 02m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946	8h 38m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	CLT 14:22 → ATL 15:37DL 2157	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:30DL 1861	8h 08m	99%	86%
American Details →	CLT 07:05 → MIA 09:12AA 770	2h 27m Miami	MIA 11:39 → SJU 14:24AA 1613	7h 19m	99%	85%
United Details →	CLT 06:00 → IAD 07:29UA 6279 · flown by Mesa	1h 05m Dulles	IAD 08:34 → SJU 12:34UA 2021	6h 34m	94%	84%
American Details →	CLT 09:10 → MIA 11:22AA 3184	3h 23m Miami	MIA 14:45 → SJU 17:21AA 967	8h 11m	100%	84%
JetBlue Details →	CLT 06:50 → FLL 08:56B6 848	2h 49m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 11:45 → SJU 14:33B6 1553	7h 43m	100%	83%
United Details →	CLT 11:48 → IAH 13:34UA 6236 · flown by Mesa	1h 29m Houston	IAH 15:03 → SJU 20:38UA 701	8h 50m	95%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON