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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: United via O'Hare, leaving 06:39, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CLT 06:39 → ORD 07:45UA 1304 1h 19m Chicago ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51UA 2145 8h 12m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → CLT 18:10 → SLC 20:29DL 2070 2h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 8h 34m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491 2h 25m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 8h 49m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 8h 30m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:34 → DFW 09:28AA 1005 2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:05 → SMF 13:41AA 2078 9h 07m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → CLT 13:07 → PHX 14:23AA 1044 3h 52m Phoenix PHX 18:15 → SMF 20:23AA 464 10h 16m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963 3h 08m Denver DEN 13:35 → SMF 15:10UA 662 9h 30m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:46 → ORD 09:02AA 2843 2h 38m Chicago ORD 11:40 → SMF 14:16AA 1906 9h 30m 99% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON