tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via DFW, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 358 American Flight history → CLT 18:00 SNA 20:06 18% 4% 0.7% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180 1h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:33 → SNA 10:47AA 1939 8h 02m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:31 → DFW 09:20AA 1005 2h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:18 → SNA 13:33AA 2465 9h 02m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963 2h 58m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 9h 17m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405 1h 43m Detroit DTW 09:25 → SNA 11:05DL 1857 8h 05m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → CLT 09:41 → PHX 11:04AA 1986 3h 13m Phoenix PHX 14:17 → SNA 15:41AA 2463 9h 00m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → CLT 13:04 → PHX 14:41AA 1044 3h 22m Phoenix PHX 18:03 → SNA 19:32AA 2471 9h 28m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → CLT 10:57 → DFW 12:46AA 2747 1h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:36 → SNA 15:55AA 2659 7h 58m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:46 → ORD 09:02AA 2843 3h 03m Chicago ORD 12:05 → SNA 14:45AA 661 9h 59m 100% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON