Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2497 CLT 08:37 → STL 09:39 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2686 CLT 16:33 → STL 17:30 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2497 American Flight history →	CLT 08:37	STL 09:39	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
AA 459 American Flight history →	CLT 22:56	STL 23:58	12%	3%	0.6%	75%
AA 3096 American Flight history →	CLT 12:04	STL 12:51	13%	3%	0.6%	68%
AA 2686 American Flight history →	CLT 16:33	STL 17:30	15%	3%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON