Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 2684 at 08:53, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 2684 American Flight history →	CLT 08:53	STT 12:49	12%	3%	0.5%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CLT 05:15 → MIA 07:20AA 1165	2h 41m Miami	MIA 10:01 → STT 13:00AA 943	7h 45m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → STT 13:47DL 1899	8h 17m	99%	80%
American Details →	CLT 07:05 → MIA 09:12AA 770	2h 54m Miami	MIA 12:06 → STT 15:04AA 1391	7h 59m	99%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON